Good morning,
Here is a look at today’s fundamentals.
Weather
Finally seeing some signs of cooldown in the Northwest as Seattle, Tacoma, and Kalispell fall out of the red and have dropped several degrees over the past few days. California remains above normal, especially San Jose at 5+ degrees above average.
While the Northwest appears to be cooling down, it also looks like it’s drying out. Seattle falls nearly 4″ short of average precip over the next ten days, and Portland projects 3.5″ behind normal. California remains bone dry as S. Lake Tahoe is the only station with projected precip — a massive 0.01″.
While Seattle’s aggregate average temps are sinking, it’s not because daily lows are falling below normal. Seattle will stay at 48 today, 12 above normal, before dropping closer to the average by the weekend, though never crossing the normal line until the 17th. Precip remains well below average though most days show at least a trace amount over the next two weeks.
Slightly warmer and much drier in Portland. There isn’t a single day forecasted below normal over the next three weeks, and temps are projecting a peak low of 42 today (ten above normal), and 43 on the 14th (11 above normal). Precip is almost non-existent aside from a couple tenths of an inch next week.
Spokane’s lows will fall 20 degrees over the next two days, eventually dropping a degree below normal with a low of 25 on the 9th. Despite the sharp fall, it’s higher than what was projected yesterday, and will again lead into a warm up by the 13th when lows jump upwards of 10 degrees above normal.
Burbank’s highs will climb to 85 tomorrow, 17 above normal and just a touch below the 10-year high of 86. Temps are expected to fall back toward average rapidly, though remain a few degrees above through the end of next week. Neutral degree days should be in order for a while.
San Jose is projected to hold its temp anomaly longer than Burbank as each of the next three days reach 16 degrees above normal. Highs won’t approach the average line again until the 18th and aren’t forecasted to cross it until the 20th. Worth noting each of the next seven days had a moderate increase in highs compared to yesterday’s forecast.
The 11th showed a low of 36 as of yesterday, five below normal, but that was erased in the most recent forecast, and now each of the next 21 days project daily lows above normal. Keep an eye on late next week where lows are expected to climb 10 degrees above normal while never falling below 50.
Phoenix makes a return to 80 degree day tomorrow and Friday with a peak of 82. This marks a gradual return to the low-70’s over the weekend before again warming up late next week. No 10-year highs, but a consistent above-average forecast.
Las Vegas got a large increase over yesterday’s forecast as we move into the weekend, especially on the 10th which was bumped 10 degrees to a high of 76. Like Phoenix, the rest of the 21 days look consistently above normal.
Denver will sit 16 degrees above normal for today’s minimum, but should drop back into the low 20’s by the weekend. Despite a low of 18 on the 10th, that still marks an increase of seven degrees from yesterday’s forecast.
Hydro
RFC showed a 130 aMW decrease day-on-day for today, but increased for the following two days, and matched thereafter. STP paced ahead for the first half of the forecast and trailed in the latter.
These maps are one month apart. While snowpack has built in the mountains, it’s worth pointing out the loss of low-level snow throughout Eastern Washington
Pend Oreille sits above last year in SWE, but still falls below average by nearly an inch. Meanwhile Spokane has managed to hold on to enough snowpack to stay more than 1.5″ above normal, and Grand Coulee holds more than 4.5″ above average.
Generation
Gas outages fell more than 4,000 MW from the 26th of January to the 1st of February, but regained 2,100 MW since then. Hydro saw outages jump, increasing 1,100 from Monday to Tuesday. Meanwhile solar has nearly completely moved back online as outages decreased from 400 MW at the end of January to just 20 MW today.
Transmission
Hourly flows sunk to 2,344 MW mid-day yesterday, easily the lowest hour in the past seven days, and was enough to see the daily average sink to 3,393 MW, a 360 MW decrease day-on-day. Flows rallied quickly however, jumping back to 4,318 MW by the end of the day, and 60 MW higher than the peak from Monday.
Flows continue to pour into BC as the daily average has hovered between 1,300 and 1,600 for each of the past five days. Hourly flows peaked at 2,149 MW yesterday, down from 2,346 MW the day before.
Enjoy your week,
William