Product Update – Hydro – COE Energy

Posted on by William Griswold

Greetings,

We will be releasing a series of updates on various hydro models we announced in the Oct 14 Hydro Product Update.  This PU relates to the new report called “COE Energy”. We’ve always scraped the data, and used in our hydro forecasts, now we will report on it as well. The COE publishes actual production for 28 facilities, some of which the COE or Bureau manage, others are owned and operated privately.

Each project has at least seven years of hourly history. The COE Energy  reports are accessible via the Summary:

Standard interface to the current production and pre-selected historicals including Last Hour (H1), two hours ago (H2), same hour one day ago (D1), etc. This screen includes Y1-Y5 (one year ago to five years ago, same hour).

Ansergy extrapolates the last week, through the most recent hour, which is the one material difference between the COE’s raw data and Ansergy. Our formula to turn QG to MWH is simple; we take an average, by the hour, of the known relationships between MWH and QG times the current QG to arrive at MWH. Computed MWH is swapped out with actual MWH once we receive it (169-hour delay).

The report provides two chart interfaces; the above is the “Current” version. In the above, I plotted Cheif Joseph’s hourly energy (MWH) for the last 21 days. Note the last hour is about 3 hours ago from the time of this post. DA is the daily average, and PA is the period average.

This is a plot of the last six years of average daily energy (Green Line) with that day’s min, and max included. This is a multi-line focus plot, and you can zoom into any period:

In this example, I zoomed into the last 390 days at Wells. Though Wells is not one of the projects reported by the COE (they do PRD, WAN, and RIS) we extrapolate those others.

Capacity Reports

The COE also provides capacity for six projects, sadly not all of them. We use this data to project outages onto the fleet of federal projects. This is the summary view and has the standard Current, Yesterday, Last Year, etc. interface. The COE reports capacity, from that we drive the Outage which is based upon the peak reported capacity.

You can plot the last six years of either Capacity (MW) or Outage and zoom into any one period. I highlighted the last spring outages at GCL.

Spinning Reserve

COE offers spinning reserve energy for a few more projects than capacity; we plot all in a single line chart. In the above example, I selected the Non-Corps total.

You can view six years of average daily spin in total via chart mode, or download the data by project.

If you have any questions, drop us a note.