Here are today’s highlights and changes from earlier this week.
Falling temps brought neutral degree days and demand reacted accordingly. Loads fell 1,750 MW day-on-day at their peak, and were down 1,502 MW week-on-week. The daily average finished at 16,898, the lowest non-weekend daily average from the previous seven days.
NP-15 had a similar drop day-on-day as loads peaked at just 14,287 MW, 1,133 MW lower than the day before, and 1,137 MW lower than a week prior. With light loads seeing its bottom fall out as well, the daily average finished at its lowest point in over a week with 12,427 MW.
You are probably noticing a pattern. Demand also plummeted in SP-15 with a decline of 1,930 MW day-on-day and a massive 5,945 MW week-on-week. Light load bottomed out at its lowest level in at least a week as well with 11,736 MW. With light load and peak loads both setting new lows, it’s no surprise the daily average finished well below every other day of the week (14,795 MW).
Pretty substantial changes to note at the tail-end of the 10-day forecast as a large reduction was added beginning on the 20th. This difference is highlighted next to STP as that forecast is showing up to 1,700 aMW more in the latter days of the forecast.
While demand was shedding weight in NP and SP, the ISO had an increase in solar generation by adding roughly 450 MW at its peak yesterday. That peak also equated to the highest solar generation day of the past week.
Stack wind and hydro on top of that and California was living green yesterday as renewables as an aggregate just edged out Wednesday, but finished well ahead of the rest of the prior seven days.
We noted the uptick in gas and hydro outages on Wednesday, and since then gas returned nearly 300 MW of outages, while hydro added to its total, bringing it up to 3,973 MW. Hydro outages now sit at nearly 800 MW higher than gas.
Wednesday’s 10-Day Daily Average
Friday’s 10-Day Daily Average
I added Wednesday’s chart for a comparison in how the next 10 days have changed since the last update. While Denver had previously stuck out with its 4+ degree anomaly, that’s all but disappeared though it remains one of just four stations to project warmer than normal temps. The Montana stations took a turn toward the arctic with Billings projecting a nearly 10-degree below normal average temp.
The biggest changes to San Jose’s forecast show up mid next week as the 19th-21st are trending cooler, particularly on the 20th with highs falling more than 3 degrees. The 18th is now forecasting a high six degrees below normal.
While Sacramento is still expected to stick well below normal for its daily highs through the rest of the week, the next several days were increased two to three degrees. Highs should fall into the 70s to start off next week before making a slow climb back toward the 90s by the following weekend.
Look for consistent daily highs right around 80 for the next seven days in Burbank as temps fall 6-8 degrees below normal nearly every day. The potential for a warm up 10-days out remains with a projected high of 91 on the 24th.
Wild fluctuations are in store for Las Vegas as the forecast calls for daily highs to move from the mid-80s today to triple digits by next week. The 19th was increased six degrees in the most recent forecast, pushing the high back into the 90s.
The reduction to Phoenix’s highs we saw on the 18th-20th have mostly disappeared as the forecast was increased another 3-4 degrees for each day. Despite the increase, the highs are still projected up to five degrees below normal. Phoenix doesn’t have another triple-digit day forecasted until late next week.
We noted Denver’s drop in daily average temps earlier, and this chart explains how that came into fruition, particularly on the 20th as the high dropped 12 degrees to fall into the mid-70s. The normal temperature line is set to fall nearly 11 degrees over the next three weeks as we move into October.
Potential heating days in the forecast for the Northwest as Seattle had a few more degrees sliced off its daily highs next week, including a high of just 59 for the 18th, coming in at 11 degrees below normal.
Spokane showed up just under 7 degrees below normal in the daily average temperature table and it’s easy to see why. The 20th took a 12-degree haircut, falling to the low 60’s and 14 degrees below normal. While a slow climb toward average is projected thereafter, the average is rapidly falling itself, moving from 75 today to 65 by October 6th.
Montana is showing its eagerness to get the snow season started as temps are set to drop to a high of just 47 today, a massive 26 degrees below normal. Things should return to the mean soon after, but the massive anomaly was worth pointing out.
Yesterday marked the fifth consecutive day of decreased average daily flows and moved the daily average to 2,704 MW, the lowest in well over a week, and equates to a 441 MW drop in daily average flow. Flows topped out at 3,298 MW, nearly the same as the daily low from Wednesday.
Moving toward neutral degree days has helped decrease imports out of BC as the daily average moved to -1,589 MW, an increase of close to 500 MW since Monday. Flow topped out at -1,031 MW yesterday, the second highest hour of the week.
Have a great weekend,