Good morning,
Let’s take a look at today’s highlights.
Weather
It’s been awhile since we’ve seen a consistently cool forecast, but here we are. Denver, Albuquerque, and San Jose mark the only stations with above normal average daily temps, while Mid-C is set to jaunt more than 3 degrees below average in all stations not named Seattle.
Seattle will still get a decent cool-down, particularly on the 18th as the high could drop to 61, nine degrees below normal and seven degrees below yesterday’s forecast. These next few days mark what could be the last 70-degree days of the season.
Portland will also drop to 61 on the 18th, but that equates to an even larger anomaly as the high would fall to 13 degrees below normal, and nine degrees below yesterday’s prediction. Unlike Seattle, the rest of the forecast looks particularly mild as most days should reach comfortably into the 70s.
Rounding out the Northwest with Spokane and you can see that summer’s end is approaching quickly. Not only does the average temperature line drop ten degrees over the next three weeks, we also see the first 50-degree days in the forecast. Expect the rest of the week to top off in the 60’s.
San Jose was one of just three stations to forecast above-average for the next ten days, but you wouldn’t guess that by just glancing at their daily highs. Every day until the 20th should peak below 80 degrees, with the 18th again marking the low point at 73 (seven degrees below normal). There is potential for a small warm-up from the 20th through the end of the month.
San Jose manages to finish north of average thanks to its warm daily lows, particularly today which should finish five degrees above normal. The rest of the week trends warm as well, aggregate it all together and you get 1.4 degrees above average.
Sacramento daily highs show two days of plummeting temps, first on the 14th at 78 (ten degrees below normal), and again on the 18th at 76 (11 degrees below normal). Sacramento isn’t forecasting a high above average until the 21st, and even that is just one degree warmer.
Southern California appears even more consistently cooler. Burbank isn’t expected to get within five degrees of normal until the 23rd, and could dip as low as 11 degrees below normal tomorrow and again on the 19th.
The deserts mark the most drastic changes, particularly Palm Springs where the bottom could fall completely out next week with a high of 86 — 12 degrees below normal.
Some substantial changes to note in Phoenix as next week’s forecast took a sharp turn compared to yesterday. What was initially thought to be a warm up has now turned into highs falling six degrees below normal by the 20th. Today could potentially mark the last triple digit day for a couple weeks as temps are set to drop more than ten degrees day-on-day.
While everyone else is mired in cool temps, Denver has a death grip on its summer as today should finish nearly ten degrees above normal. Another warm up is projected for next week as well, and this one could be even warmer as the 19th shows a high of 91, 13 degrees above normal.
Demand
Demand peaked at 20,901 MW yesterday, nearly 500 MW short of Monday. Loads also fell well short of last week as demand dropped 1,472 week-on-week. With temps rapidly falling to a neutral heating day, expect that daily average to continue to step down.
NP-15 had a similar drop day-on-day, and while the week-on-week change (down roughly 1,800 MW) was still there, yesterday’s loads managed to top out above every other day from last week. After today’s moderate temps comes a move toward the mild; loads should follow a similar path.
SP-15’s day-on-day change was a bit more noteworthy as the yesterday’s peak topped out just a touch under 2,000 MW lower than the day before. The daily average fell below last week’s levels as well, shedding around 500 MW week-on-week.
Hydro
The STP and 10-Day forecast calls for large drop beginning on either the 15th or 16th (depending on the forecast — STP expects it a day later). In a sign of the times, the forecast starts to creep up again following the sharp drop, eventually building up nearly 700 aMW from the 16th to the 21st.
Generation
All nukes continue to report at 100% following the Columbia Station’s return to normal last week.
ISO outages took a sharp trend upward beginning last week as gas jumped roughly 950 MW, but the major surprise was hydro which added 1,800 MW in outages, enough to surpass gas as the leading source of outages. The only other mover of note was wind with an additional 300 MW.
Transmission
Yesterday marked the third consecutive day of decreased average daily flows and consequently moved the daily average below the two-week average, the lowest since the 7th. Flows topped out at 4,212 MW, higher than the day before, but with sustained flows lacking, the daily average fell behind.
The daily average plummeted to -2,171 MW on Monday, easily the lowest point of the past week, but saw that bounce back a bit yesterday as the average increased around 200 MW. Flows hit their lowest point at -2,779 MW, just a touch above the week-low of -2,786 MW from the day before. Flows rose above the average weekly flow just twice yesterday, the least of the week.
Enjoy the rest of your week,
William