Eclipse – A Little (too much) Help From Our Friends

Hi,

To expand upon Bill’s post earlier, here are a few Solar charts which plot Imports and Solar Energy from the last seven days for the three ISO hubs. The solar haircut can be seen by comparing HE09 output to HE011, though the actual loss was greater since HE11 was ramping up, yet they do provide a reasonable approximation of the damage done.

NP saw a 323 MW cut from HE09 to HE11 but realized a 597 MW bump in imports during the same period.

ZP realized a 267 MW solar cut from HE09 to HE11.

SP, meanwhile, saw a 1,346 MW solar cut while enjoying a 2,097 MW bump in imports. Aggregating all of these changes suggests the much-feared impact of the Eclipse 2017 was a whole lot of ado over nothing.

The ISO did realize a cut, over 2000 MW, but imports more than offset that resulting in a net loss of 758 MW of net demand. In other words, Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact because that was the only Eclipse strategy that anyone reaped benefits from. Reminds us of the 2016 Washington State Carbon Tax debacle.