STP Update

Good Afternoon,

The NWRFC updated its 120 day this afternoon, our take follows:

Monthly

Energy Scorecard

  • August – down 250 aMW
  • Septemeber – down 60 aMW
  • October – down 250 aMW
  • November – up 550 aMW
  • December – 900 aMW lower than the five-year average

A slightly bullish release, aside from the November surprise. Apparently, that trace of Westside rain which fell on Sunday will all be deferred for November.

Daily

Most of the August haircut occurs in the last half of the month, but take note of the delta to normal; WY17 has morphed into a “dry” year. The November surprise appears to be more of a correction against an erratic forecast last week, though can’t say we agree about above normal, at least not in the second week of August. Way too far out to call anything but normal.

Year on Year

August is coming in at a five year low and November a five year high, all in the same forecast. Go figure.