STP Update

Good Morning,

As expected, last night’s 120 day update (STP) was mildly bullish.

Monthly Energy

Energy Scorecard

  • July – down 350 aMW
  • August – down 440 aMW
  • Sept – down 70 aMW
  • Oct – down 700 aMW
  • Nov – down 600 aMW

Cuts across the board, strange since there was absolutely no “news” to warrant a change. View these pullbacks as corrections to previous over-forecasts.

Year on Year

BOM is now dwarfed by 2013-14 water years, yet still higher than 15-16. August is projected as the lowest in the last five, we’d suggest that might be overdone, cuts that is. We’d not be surprised to see some water added back to August. November looks overly robust.

Daily Energy Equivalents

Interesting that over the next four weeks every day is below the five-year average and this was a near-epic water year. Volume-wise it may have been, but when it melts early most is wasted; in this year, a large portion of the largesse was spilled. Also note that Oct through November are above normal, suggesting anomalous  reservoir levels:

But I don’t see that; I see two years that were higher than today (2016 and 2014); if anything, it seems the reservoirs are a touch below normal which suggests Oct and Nov are slightly over-stated.