Thursday Update

Good Afternoon,

Here are a few highlights of what’s going on in the west today.


Portland Weather

Portland is bracing for serious heat this weekend where Sunday could reach into the upper 90s with a projected high of 97, preceded by Saturday’s 95.  10-year highs will be smashed from the 23rd-25th is the forecast holds true.  This heat wave is a few degrees warmer than what was forecasted yesterday.

Seattle Weather

Seattle is trending a bit in the opposite direction as the most recent forecast is cooler than yesterday’s.  Still hot for Seattle at 85, if you have AC in your house, it will be running.  Things will cool off rapidly thereafter as highs drop back into the 60’s by the 27th, potentially five degrees below normal.

Phoenix Weather

Hades…err Phoenix was forecasted two degrees cooler today, but still well north of 110.  There is another peak set for Sunday at 116, ten degrees above normal and seven degrees above the previous 10-year high.  Another adjustment was set for late next week where the 1st is now projected at 113 degrees compared to yesterday’s forecast of 106.

Phoenix Actual Temps

Looking at Phoenix Actual Temps you can see just how far ahead of previous years the past several days have been.  2017 set new 10-year highs each of the past three days.

Burbank Weather

Southern California is set to drop into the 80’s tomorrow after a long stretch of 90+ days, but that relief will be short lived as another heat wave should barrel in on the 25th where the high could reach 94.  From there, sustained below-normal temps could dip down as low as 75 by the end of the month.

San Jose Weather

It’s still going to be hot today, but San Jose will see a steady slide back toward the mean following today’s high of 95, and eventually settle back into the 70’s by next week.  If the forecast holds true, we may not see 90+ days for weeks following this weekend.

Sacramento Weather

Ultimately the same story in Sacramento, but with a high of 108 today (18 degrees above normal) and 101 tomorrow, it’s still worth noting on the blog.  As Sacramento cools off, we could see high drop down to 85 by the 29th, five degrees below normal for that day.

Current Precip Summary

The west is still bone-dry aside from Billings and Denver thanks to forecasted thunderstorms.  13 of the 21 stations are forecasting zero precipitation over the next 10 days.

Water Supply

NW River Forecast

For the first time in a while we are beginning to see the 10-day forecast project above STP, this time beginning on the 26th.  STP especially trails off at the back end of the ten-day forecast, losing 800 MW in a day.  Again, small day-on-day changes to the 10-day forecast, never varying by more than 10 MW.

Forebay Elevations

Here is a broad look at forebay elevations.  Most are within a few feet of capacity and those that aren’t are rapidly filling up.  Libby added just under 7 ft. in that past week, and Dworshak filled 3.76′ (putting it within two feet of capacity).  No reservoirs dropped more than 0.6′.

Historical Reservoir Levels

With Libby rapidly filling, let’s look at where the reservoir stands historically.  At 84% for June 22nd Libby is 2% points behind last year, 5 points behind 2015, and three points behind 2014.  Of course, this year began filling with a much lower elevation.  Libby’s lowest level sat at 43% on May 7th, compare that to last year’s 64%, 71% for 2015, or 57% for 2014.


NP-15 Loads

NP demand didn’t show any relief yesterday as it peaked above 20,000 MW for the third consecutive day.  Loads were also up 5,320 MW week-on-week, and 3,179 MW year-on-year.  Despite an increased peak in demand yesterday, the daily average actually fell 300 MW thanks in part to a lower light load.

SP-15 Loads

Despite largely elevated loads in SP this year, demand actually fell 4,351 MW year-on-year thanks to a huge spike in 2016.  Demand remains up week-on-week by as much as 4,319 MW yesterday.  The daily average sat at 18,310 MW yesterday, basically unchanged from the day prior.

Current Nuclear Summary

We are seeing some signs of life out of Diablo Canyon 1 as it rose to 12% today.  Columbia Generating Station is also heading back online, nearly back to 100% with 94% today.


Transmission Mid-C to NP

Flow saw its daily average drop to 3,626 MW, nearly par with the weekly average, and down 150 MW from the day before.  We haven’t seen an hourly flow drop below 3,000 MW since the 15th, and yesterday’s low only approached 3,200 MW.

Transmission – MidC to BC

The Mid-C to BC line continues to trend South as the daily average finished at -1,132 yesterday, 350 MW below the weekly average.  The peak came close to neutral, but still only managed to hit -141 MW at 9 PM before falling back to -1,834 MW yesterday afternoon.


Have a great rest of your week,