STP Update – Ansergy’s Take

Good Afternoon,

The NWRFC released its 120-day forecast today, here is our take:

Monthly Energy Equivalent

Energy Scorecard

  • May – up 500 aMW of water equivalents
  • June – down 1070  aMW of water equivalents
  • July – down 650 aMW of water equivalents
  • August – up 300 aMW of water equivalents

The early heat in the Northwest interior is accelerating the snow melt; the RFC perceives melt in May is snow not available in June, and we can’t disagree with that. The Lake Roosevelt refill question remains unanswered. If BPA elects to capture most of this early melt, then we’d argue the timing of the melt is irrelevant, that lost storage capacity in May is bearish on June. Time will tell.

Daily Energy

That which giveth to May is taketh from June, though the giving is much less than the taking which suggests some model shenanigans and worthy of raised eyebrows. Perhaps the RFC is factoring in below average precip in the 10-day outlook, fair enough, but given they didn’t factor in above normal for the last several weeks then perhaps these June cuts are too much. Further, as mentioned above, if the May largesse is captured in the reservoirs the net energy effect is nil, the RFC is assuming the water is mostly passed. Time will tell.

Year on Year

2017 is the mother of all Mays, and June is a twin to 2014, but July and August have lost their luster and are more normal than not.  How do past years compare as of May 1?

Using our production weighted Hub total for Mid-C we can see that this snow year is not that big, it is dwarfed by the snow levels from 2011 and 2008 and is behind 2014. Given this reality check, we’d have to concur with the RFC’s July and August.