Good Evening,

The broken record player has broken again, it keeps playing that same nauseating song, “STP is Up,” over and over; it has been the same verse and tune for the last seven weeks.

Monthly Energy

Energy Scorecard

• March – up 3200 aMW; this period, balance of March, is now projected to have greater composite flows than any other period in WY17
• April – up 2800 aMW – I recall a client complaining that the forecast several weeks back was way too high for April, that was like 9000 MWs ago … LOL
• May – Up 300 aMW; rounding error, BPA can spill that in a few minutes
• June – Down 600 amW; June is now off 1600 aMW from two weeks ago
• July – Down 5000 aMW; careful on this one, seven new days are added each week, seven from the back of July. We need to examine the daily plots to identify if day on day changes are taking place

Daily

Comments:

• the next six weeks will be off the charts, a new paradigm, regime change, a brave new hydro world.
• The RFC has walked its June down, same days, for the last two weeks. We don’t buy that; the snow pack has been building, not shrinking, at least in most locales that matter:
  • 
    • The above table is a new report we added; these are actual inches of Snow Water Equivalent (not % of normal); nothing says build or melt better than SWE, and every upstream basin from Coulee has had two week builds, despite the melt of low-level snow. The Westside story is a different story but doesn’t matter in terms of energy and June-July hydro.
• May take a few weeks, but we think that 5000 MWs backed out of July will get added back in, at least some of it, same with the back-end of June

Year on Year

Told you it was off the charts (Mar-Apr); July is less than last year – WRONG!