Thursday Update

Good Afternoon,

Here are a few highlights of what’s going on in the west today.


SP15 Loads

With hot weather making its first appearance of the year in Southern California, SP15 loads have responded as you would expect.  Demand is up 1430 MW week-over-week, and also increased 711 MW annually.  Light load demand is also up week-over-week by as much as 709 MW.

Mid-C Loads

Mid-C is also warming up, though unlike SP-15, degree days are getting closer to 0 not further away.  Demand plummeted 3,651 MW week-over-week, and is down 2,436 year-over-year.


Current Weather Summary

Warm weather has now expanded throughout the West as every station and aggregated hub is forecasting above-normal average temperatures over the next 10 days.  Much like Tuesday, Denver and Salt Lake show the largest anomaly, though many other stations, including those in SP15, have since slightly decreased.

Current Precipitation Summary

Mixed precipitation forecasts as there is an almost even split between above and below normal levels.  NP-15 and Great basin will be mostly wetter, while the rest of the west will be slightly drier.  Sacramento and San Jose are both forecasting more than an inch above normal spread out over the next ten days.

Denver Weather

Denver is expected to stay above normal daily highs until close to the end of the month.  While Denver has been above normal for more than a week, it hadn’t approached 10 year levels until what is expected to be a record on both the 18th and 19th, with the former expected to reach into the 80s.

Burbank Weather

Burbank will come within a degree of a 10 year high tomorrow when max temps are forecasted to reach 84 degrees, 14 degrees above normal.  Tomorrow also marks the beginning of a cooling trend as daily highs are expected to fall back below normal by the 21st and could stay there for close to a week.

Though Burbank’s maximum temps are set to fall below normal, minimum temperatures forecasting to stay warm for the foreseeable future.

Phoenix Weather

Phoenix is set to reach above 90 degrees for each of the next four days with a peak on Saturday at 94 degrees.  The 18th through the 20th are all on pace to set 10 year highs, and should be 15+ degrees above normal.

Water Supply

NW River Forecast

The 10 Day River Forecast was adjusted slightly higher compared to yesterday for most of the next five days, and a bit lower for much of next week.  Today’s forecasted is showing a seven-day high of 23,968 on the 24th.

Clark Fork – Hydro Rivers Current

The Clark Fork has really started to pick up the pace over the past week as it currently sits at 25,075 CFS, an increase of 5,725 CFS in just 24 hours and nearly double the flow from a week ago.

Spokane – Hydro Rivers Current

After heavy flows early this month, Spokane is again above 20k CFS, this time at 21,250 as of 11 AM today, an increase of nearly 4000 CFS in 24 hours.  The river dropped to 10,900 CFS one week ago.

Mid-C Sideflows – Hydro Rivers Current

Similar graph coming out of the Cascades as well as we’ve now seen an increase of 2,000 CFS in 24 hours (30%), and up nearly 200% in seven days.

Hub-Level Snow Supply

The snow melt can easily be seen in Mid-C as the snowpack was reduced from 148% of normal to 118%.  NP-15 and SP-15 are still holding on to their massive snow years as each is well north of 180% of normal.

Gas Reports

Nat Gas Summary

All hubs other than SoCal Citygate (increase of $0.08) are down day over day.  El Paso non-Bondad dropped $.14 compared to yesterday and SoCal Border Avg. decreased from $2.77 to $2.64.

Mid-C Nodal Power Summary (by Plant)

Transwestern (Palo Verde) dropped 34,617 MCF overnight while Kern River (Great Basin) jumped 34,740 MCF.

Hub-Level Gas Demand

Demand increased sharply in NP-15 as 152 MMCF was added compared to yesterday.  Alternatively, SP-15 dropped 201 MMCF, moving from 2,267 to 2,066 MMCF.


Have a great rest of your week,