STP Update

Good Evening,

The NWRFC had a late release of this week’s 120-day forecast, aka STP. No surprises from what we suggested would be included – big bumps in March and April …read on.


Monthly

Energy Scorecard

  • March – up 1400 aMW
  • April – Up 1600 aMW
  • May – Up 400 aMW
  • June – down 70 aMW

by Year

Told you it was a big year, only June 2014 rivals the amount of energy in the current STP, and we’re still not convinced the lower elevation snow is incorporated correctly.  Both March and April are projected to produce 4000 aMW more energy this year than last. Drop that in your stack model and see what price falls out, doubt it will be set by gas.


Daily Versus Last Week

Take note of how much energy is projected well into June; normally flows taper off around the 10th, but in this latest run all of June is near max capacity. Also, take note of the small cuts on March 15, this would be the post-Coulee drafts. Look at the big surge next week that is to get the reservoir to 1255′.