Good Afternoon,
Rather than spam you with three updates, we’ll roll all into one.
Inflection Charts
We have retooled our inflection reports to include hourly and daily tests. As a reminder, the inflections test ten cases around the base. These cases are simple look-ups of prices given a change in net demand (increase/decrease in demand/supply). These are not re-dispatched prices, just lookups. As such, the report should be used as an indication of where a hub/period is most sensitive.
Hourly
The black|gray lines reflect the results of the tests and the red line is the average of the deltas off of the base case.
In this example, I disabled the “Index (red line)” and plotted each of the ten cases. The spike on Feb 13 on HE08 would reflect the most bullish hour in our forecast. Alternatively, you can chart just the index:
The index is an average of all ten deltas to the base case; where negative the model is biased towards the downside; positive to the upside.
Daily
The daily looks out 180 days and applies the same ten tests. In this example, we plotted SP15 on peak, and the conclusion we draw is there is more downside than up over the next couple of months. Bear in mind, this is pre-dispatch, and with SP being such a large importer if prices get soft they receive less energy whereas the Mid-C lacks some of that flexibility once its lines are full.
That short-side bias is emphasized by plotting just the Index.
Monthly
Monthly uses the same methodology but extends out 13 months.
Hydro Flows
At the request of a client, we have added a forward-looking 24-month flow forecast and a 60 month backward looking recap by river station.
Forecasts are available as period averages for the following stations (the ones we use in our WECC hydro energy projection):
All chart data is available for download:
The flow data can be viewed Hourly, Daily, or Monthly
The above is a daily plot of the Pit River (California) and includes the last 150 days of actuals and 365 days of forecasted flows.
Hourly goes back seven days and forward fourteen.
EIM Chart
Ansergy provides the period of record for EIM DA, HA, and RT markets but the reports were as of most recent dates. To address that issue we are experimenting with a new reporting object that allows the user to plot any location against any market:
We are planning on moving all of our reports to this format as it gives the user greater control over what is plotted. We’ll use the ISO market prices as a test. In the above example, we plotted three BAs using RT aggregated into 15-minute blocks.
In this example, we dropped AZPS and selected a date in August to plot the same data.