STP Update

Good Afternoon,

Ansergy has computed the energy equivalent of this week’s 120-day forecast (aka STP). The following plots summarize our findings:

Monthly Energy

Energy Scorecard

  • Feb – up 1300 aMW
  • Mar – up 660 aMW
  • Apr – down 1150 aMW
  • May – up 750 aMW
  • Jun – out of the box, up 750 aMW over the last four years average

Daily Energy

Increases in the front are paid for out of April; the big cuts at the end of March have returned, and big cuts at the end of April remain. This forecast does not reflect a deeper draft than the Jan guidelines, though water supply is 5% higher.

Year on Year Energy

No big surprises here, this year is lower than 2015 and equal or above all other years. Bottom line, it’s a big year and will pound the MidC at some point, we just don’t know when. With lingering cold, one would be biased towards a later runoff, except for the fact that most of the recent years have been early.

Day of Year Energy

Compared to 2015, all years are weaker, though this year will be the second biggest Feb.