STP Update – Bullish

Good Afternoon,

The NWRFC delivered a relatively bullish report today:

Monthly Energy

000 STP by Month

Energy Scorecard

  • Jan – Down 700 aMW
  • Feb – Down 850 aMW
  • Mar – Up 350 aMW
  • Apr – Down 150 aMW
  • May  – Up 200 aMW

No one should have been surprised; the ten day was your tell:

000 STP 10 day

Even bigger cuts today on top of Friday’s cuts.

Daily Energy

000 STP by Day

Cuts across Feb which poses no shock to anyone; we’ve always felt that significant rain in October had at best a marginal effect in Feb; the RFC concurs with that conclusion, 90 days later. We also note the cut on April 1 through April 15 – this is very drum-gate-ish; in that BPA can defer its drafts until the last 15 days. It’s also very new, the first time they’ve layered this regulatory wonder in their forecast.

Year on Year

000 STP by YoY

Feb is rapidly approaching parched range, and we are quickly becoming less comfortable with it. March is rounding error from previous years, as is April, but May is now looking bigger than 2015 ..huh?

By Day of Year

000 STP by DOY

This report is different than the previous as it uses the same week forecast for each of the past years; the Year on Year takes an average of every forecast for the forecasted dates. 2015 was the only year where flows were cut the first two weeks of April, but nothing like this year.

Tally Ho!