Thursday Update

Good Afternoon,

Here are a few highlights of what’s going on in the west today.


Mid-C Temps


It’s been mentioned each of the past two days, but cold temperatures are soon to hit Mid-C, though it’s looking more and more like ‘cold’ may not be the most accurate description.  Minimum temperatures have been forecasted 5 degrees colder than forecasted yesterday for January 3rd; now sitting at a potential 10+ year low of 14 degrees for Mid-C as an aggregate.

Portland Temps


Take a closer look at the larger population centers of Mid-C, and you’ll notice a similar story.  Portland has a chance to set a 10+ year record low for several consecutive days beginning on the first.

Seattle Temps


Seattle won’t quite hit the low temps that Portland will see, but still should set new 10+ year minimum temps.

Current Temps Summary


Taking a broader look at the west we see that just one of the 17 major stations that Ansergy monitors is currently registering temperatures above average (Albuquerque).  Billings is the furthest below normal at 16.4 degrees from climo.

Water Supply

Hydro Reservoir – Current


Grand Coulee again added a couple more percentage points to its reservoir, and now sits at 87% full.  Will be something to keep an eye on next week as demand should go through the roof.


SP15 Loads


Demand in SP15 is down 1250 MW week over week, and down 955 MW year over year.  Loads have remained mostly unchanged for the past three days.

River Forecast

NW River Forecast


The 10-Day River Forecast is up from the STP forecast for each of the next ten days, though especially moving into next week.  There is little change in yesterday’s forecast compared to today.

Gas Reports

Mid-C Nodal Power Summary (by Plant)


Mid-C  decreased close to 13,500 MCF as a whole largely thanks to two Northwest stations dropping out completely (Goldendale Generating Station, and Evander).

Hub-Level Gas Demand


Demand decreased in all hubs except SP15 (3.3%) and Great Basin (3.7%).  NP15 showed the largest nominal drop at 158 MMCF (4.9%).

Nat Gas Summary


SoCal Citygate dropped $0.06, while the other hubs remained mostly unchanged give or take a penny.


Major Unit Outages


350 MW returned to SP15 today, including 85 MW of gas.  NP15 also had some plants come back online — 244 MW of hydro, and 57 MW of geo.


Mid-C Renewable Generation


Mid-C wind hit 4000 MW multiple times on the 27th, and will have the opportunity to do the same today as well.  The forecast also suggests relatively calm winds as the cold front settles onto the Northwest.


Transmission Mid-C to NP


TTC dropped 50 MW mid-day yesterday, and flow is down nearly 200 MW in daily average.  This drop comes after four consecutive days of increases.

Transmission – MidC to BC


Flow south increased nearly 300 MW day-over-day.  BC did show some imports briefly on the 27th when it reached a peak of 375 MW at 3:00 PM.


Have a great rest of your week,