Good Afternoon,
Today is STP Monday, despite being Tuesday, because yesterday was Christmas Monday, at least for the feds, and probably most everyone else. Might have been a good day to check in, however, given that the coldest event of the season blew in as a belated Xmas present for the longs.
Today’s STP is bearish, hydro-wise, which makes sense given that BPA is going to draft the bejeezus out of its reservoirs just to keep the Northwest Christmas lights lit.
Energy Scorecard
- Dec – Up 1900 aMW – a mind-boggling show-stopper for what’s left of BOM
- Jan – Up 800 aMW – less boggling, but still large, and suggests how low these reservoirs are getting pulled
- Feb – Up 250 aMW
- Mar – Down 200 aMW; have to pay the piper somewhere, though this meager amount barely registers as a downpayment
- Apr – Down 100 aMW …yawwwn, that number will change 20 times between now and then
Wow, rains on the cold parade, but just goes to show why BPA fills its reservoirs in the Fall. Also note most of the goofy Feb – into – Mar haircut was grafted back onto the chart; then a bizarre cut from Mar 21 to Apr 1 – first hint that this year will get Drum Gate?
Jan is shaping up to be a flush month, it is now the biggest of the last four, and it is probably correct. Look at Feb versus last year, try on four nukes worth of new-found hydro energy and see if you like it. April is shaping up to be a big month, too; a lot more water in there than the current market thinks, we think.
Not much different in this view, though those Mar 21 haircuts look highly suspect, given the size of this water year; these are now four-year lows for those ten days.
Happy New Year,
Team Ansergy