Tuesday Update

Good Afternoon,

Here are a few highlights of what’s going on in the west today.

 

Natural Gas Markets

 

Nat Gas Summary

1

Every hub is up day-over-day. SoCal Border Avg. showed the largest nominal increase ($0.46), or 19.7%. Cheyenne Hub increased the least, but still $0.37 higher than yesterday.

Demand

SP15 Loads

2

SP15 loads rallied yesterday, but remain down nearly 2400 MW week-over-week.  Year-over-year load totals have been very close the past two days with yesterday just 300 MW short of last year.

NP Loads

3

Similar story in NP15 as loads have increased over the past two days, but again fall short of last week (though just 483 MW short).  2016 loads have peaked just below 2015 for each of the past seven days.

Mid-C Loads

5

The difference in Mid-C year-over-year loads has continued to increaase over the past three days and was punctuated by yesterday’s difference of 3400 MW.  Despite the large decrease in demand from last year, yesterday was actually 1200 MW higher than the week prior.

Temperatures

Burbank Temps

6

There is a pretty dramatic change in forecasted high temps in Burbank for next week.  The forecasted high for the 29th was set at 71 degrees yesterday, but has been readjusted to just 55 as of today.  Every day from the 26th through the 30th has been forecasted with a lower high temperature.

Seattle Weather

7

Seattle minimum temperatures should remain above normail for at least another week, though it should be very wet for the next two days as well more than 1″ of rain should fall in 48 hours.

NW River Forecast

8

The 10-Day River Forecast was reduced a bit from the STP for the 22nd, and then increased for the next six days.  The 22nd is forecasted 300 MW less than yesterday.

Gas Reports

Nodal Power Summary (by Plant)

10

Mid-C as a whole increased 36,000 MCF, largely drive by Mint Farm jumping from 0 MCF to 10,952 MCF.  Hermiston Generating Plant also contributed heavily with an increase of nearly 23,000 MCF.

Hub-Level Gas Demand

11

Demand increased in four of the six hubs.  NP15 increased the most (64 MMCF), while SP15 decreased 378 MMCF.

Outages

Major Unit Outages

12

Three new outages today, two of which are in NP15 (85 MW of Geo and 55 MW of oil).  265 MW of wind was also reported as an outage in SP15.

Renewables

SP15 Renewable Generation

13

Solar generation should continue to increase from the low of 2925 MW shown on the 20th.  We could see a peak of 6000 MW on the 24th which would be the highest total in over a week.

Mid-C Renewable Generation

14

Wind generation could also peak on the 24th where as much as 4458 MW is forecasted in Mid-C.  Wind generation last peaked above 4000 MW on the 15th.

Transmission

Transmission – MC-NP

15

TTC returned to 3900 MW on the 18th, and flow slowly ramped up in turn.  The daily average increased from 2581 WM on the 18th to 2962 MW by the 19th.  Flow hit a peak of 3502 MW at 3:00 PM on the 20th.

Transmission – MidC to BC

16

Flow has continued to move south from BC to Mid-C, now for six stright days.  The daily average hit a low of -925 MW on the 20th before increasing slightly to -799 MW yesterday.

 

Have a great Thanksgiving!

William