Good Afternoon,
The NWRFC updated its 120 day forecast this afternoon by tossing in a few more mwhs, though no one should be surprised, the 10 day has been ratcheted up for the last week.
Energy Scorecard – Week on Week Change
- November – up 800 aMW
- December – up 600 aMW
- January – up 240 aMW
- February – down 120 aMW
- March – up 150 aMW
November and December are now in parity, remarkable because December typically realizes about 2000 aMW more on peak (average weather) demand than Nov.
Oh yeah, we are liking that long dec/nov roll.
Mostly the latest forecast is the same shape as last week; each has those ridiculous jumps/drops transitioning into a new calendar month; am surprised the RFC doesn’t deploy a moving average to smooth those out; most likely they are caused by BPA’s regulation changes. What is most interesting, to us, is the flat shape of the energy from today through the first of Feb. We are certain that realized demand won’t look like that.
2016 is one for the record books; every month is setting a 4 year high until you get to February, than 14 surpasses this year.
Clearly, there is a large body of water that has yet to work its way through the system, with above normal precip scheduled for the next ten days that problem only compounds.