Thursday Outlook

Good Afternoon,

The Northwest remains mild, and Southern California sees demand increase.  Here are a few other highlights of what’s going on in the west today.


EIM Daily


There has been close to a $5 gap between yesterday and today through most of the morning before yesterday’s sharp decrease beginning at 9:00 AM.


Yesterday had two spikes in mid to late afternoon ($241 at 2:00 PM and $987 at 5:00 PM).  Prices dipped below $0 again at 3:00 PM before eventually settling in the mid-20s for the rest of the day.

Nat Gas Summary


Every hub is down day-over-day.  El Paso non-Bondad dropped $0.08, the largest nominal decrease, though all fell within $0.06 to $0.08.


SP15 Loads


Warm weather in Southern California continues to show its impact in SP15 demand.  Loads are up close to 4000 MW week-over-week, and nearly 5000 MW year-over-year.

NP Loads


Demand in NP15 showed a small increase week-over-week, moving from a high of 15,577 MW last Wednesday to 16,159 MW yesterday (582 MW).  This increase also pushed 2016 loads slightly ahead of 2015.

Mid-C Loads


Mid-C year-over-year decrease in demand has increased for the past three days thanks to a continued mild forecast.  Loads are also 800 MW lower week-over-week.


Burbank Temps


Hot temperatures persist in Southern California with Burbank sitting at 14 degrees above normal today.  Our forecasts have adjusted to suggest the weekend will be a few degrees higher than originally expected, and the the cooling perioud next week will be short lived.

Portland Weather


Portland begins its slow decline back to the mean, but will still have mild temperatures through the weekend.  Chance of moderate precipitation on Sunday, but will otherwise be dry for the next seven days.

NW River Forecast


Strong day-over-day increases for each of the next ten days in the River Forecast.  Each day remains well above the STP forecast from Monday.

Gas Reports

Nodal Power Summary (by Plant)


Mid-C increased around 33,000 MCF, largely thanks to Mint Farm returning online (16,774 MCF).  Evander was the only plant to drop to 0 MCF (from 14,460 MCF).


Major Unit Outages


3 new outages today including 404 MW of hydro and 495 MW of gas in NP15, and 308 MW of gas in ZP15.


SP15 Renewable Generation


More steady solar generation for SP15 as we expect another week of 5000+ MW.  Keep an eye out for next Monday with a potential for more than 7000 MW.



Transmission – MC-NP


TTC dropped to 3500 MW on Tuesday and has stayed there ever since.  Flow followed suit and decreased as well, reaching a low of 2547 MW yesterday afternoon, and a high 3336 last night.

Transmission – MidC to BC


More negative flow for MC to BC, though it looks like its ever so slightly starting to creep back toward 0.  It reached a three day low of 1165 MW yesterday afternoon.


Have a great rest of your week,