Good Afternoon,
Here are a few highlights of what’s going on in the west today.
Markets
Both today and yesterday showed high prices at 6:50 AM, though today was nearly twice as high ($997). Before the spike, today was close to $10 lower for most of the early morning and had a low of $19 at 1:50 AM.
Yesterday had four spikes in late afternoon, three of which approached $1000. The lowest price hit at 10:55 AM (-$14), while the late afternoon saw prices mostly fluctuate between $20 and $30.
Hubs are up across the board. While SoCal Border Avg. had the largest increase ($0.31), every hub saw a jump of at least $0.15.
Demand
Quite a bit of movement in both week-over-week, and year-over-year loads in SP15. Yesterday had a more than 2000 MW increase of a week prior, and 1400 MW higher than last year. This week’s year-over-year increase is contrasted by the decrease shown through most of last week (last Monday was 1400 MW lower than the previous year).
The year-over-year load patterns are a bit less dramatic in NP15, though the gap in demand during late-morning hours persists. Loads are up around 1200 MW week-over-week.
The change in Mid-C year-over-year loads widened yesterday with a difference of 2500 MW at its peak. There has been a decent gap each of the last seven days.
Temperatures
Burbank temps are currently 15 degrees above normal and are forecasted to reach 17 degrees above normal tomorrow. We are forecasting temps to slowly decrease through the weekend, but still won’t drop below normal for close to two weeks.
Seattle is continuing to enjoy mild temperatures similar to last week, though without precipitation, at least for the next couple days. The 65 degree high forecasted for today would be 11 degrees above normal.
A lot of movement from STP in today’s 10 day River Forecast. We are expecting higher MW in each of the next ten days, especially as we move into the weekend and the beginning of next week.
Gas Reports
Nodal Power Summary (by Plant)
Evander and Mint-Farm combined for a decrease of over 32,000 MCF (both dropped to 0). Rathdrum Peaker came back online to a total of 9,756 MCF. Mid-C as a whole increased 68,000 MCF day-over-day.
Outages
14 new outages for today including: 146 MW of gas in NP15, and 1,378 MW of gas in SP15. Shiloh IV Wind Project dropped 92 MW in NP15 as well.
Renewables
Forecasts are suggesting heavy wind generation today (possible 4000+ MW), followed by even more potential through the week with a peak on the 13th. The previous seven day high was 2577 MW reached on the 6th.
Today marks the 7th consecutive day of 5000+ MW of solar for SP15. Generation should straddle the 5000 MW mark for the next several days before the possibility of 7000+ on the 14th.
PV3 is slowly making its may back online having now reached 72%. PV3 has been offline from 10/8 through 11/4.
Transmission
TTC looks like it has finally stabilized having remained unchanged at 3900 MW for the last five days. In turn flow slowly increased and has since followed regular daily patterns with highs around 3600 MW.
Flow has continued its decrease that we noted last Thursday and has now recorded five consecutive days of BC to MC movement. Yesterday showed a five day high of -121 reached at 9:00 AM.
Have a great week,
William