Thursday Outlook

Good Afternoon,

Here are a few highlights of what’s going on in the West.


EIM Daily

1LMP started off close to $10 above yesterday before seeing the gap narrow at 5:00 AM.  Yesterday morning spiked at 7:40 with $56.

2Yesterday saw prices all over the board; low of -$15 at 11:00 AM and a high of $48 at 6:45 PM.  Prices rallied in early-afternoon and stayed positive through the rest of the day.

Nat Gas Summary

3Increases across all hubs with Cheyenne Hub showing the largest ($0.16).  PG&E Citygate increased just $0.01, the smallest among hubs.


SP15 Loads

4SP15 has close to a 2500 MW week-over-week increase, while the gap in demand between 2015 and 2016 has all but disappeared.

NP Loads

5Less dramatic week-over-week results in NP15 as loads dropped about 500 MW.  Year-over-year demand remains lower, but again like SP15, the gap this week is much smaller than last week.

Mid-C Loads

62016 loads remain above 2015 at all hours in Mid-C.  Loads yesterday were around 700 MW less at their peak compared to last week.


Burbank Temps

7The heat wave in Burbank that we’ve been forecasting for the past week has indeed come into fruition.  We could see a record high today if temps reach 99 as predicted.  Tomorrow should be hot as well before temps quickly jump back to normal by Sunday.

Portland Precipitation

8Rain is continuing to cover the Northwest, and the updated forecast suggests a new system should hover around the area for the next couple days before finally offering a break.

NW River Forecast

9Cuts to the 10 Day river forecast remain in place, and have been scaled back even further for much of next week (compared to yesterday).

Gas Reports

Nodal Power Summary (by Plant)

10Mint Farm and River Road Gen Plant have both dropped to 0 MCF since yesterday, while Grays Harbor saw a drop from 13,646 to 29 MCF.  Hermiston Generating Plant was the only plant with significant increases in MCF.

Hub-Level Gas Demand

12While Mid-C showed large decreases in MMCF as noted above, every other hub other than SP15 produced an increase day-over-day (SP15 showed a drop of 25 MMCF).


Major Unit Outages

11Just two outages to report on in SP15 with 78 MW of wind coming off line and 85 MW of gas (SYCAMORE COGENERATION UNIT 3).



Mid-C Renewable Generation

13We are still forecasting steady wind generation for the foreseeable future in Mid-C.  Expect averages around 1250 MW and spikes as high as 3500 for the next week.

SP15 Renewable Generation

16Looks like SP15 solar generation could drop off quite a bit on Monday next week before rapidly increasing to a two-week high.  We are currently forecasting Monday at close to 1500 MW less than today.


Transmission – MC-NP

14TTC has held steady at 2850 for a week.  Flow had a sharp drop yesterday at 8:00 AM and has since rallied back, close to its seven day average.

Transmission – MidC to BC

15Flow hovered just below 0 for much of yesterday and has since dipped to -312 at midnight last night.  We haven’t seen much dramatic movement either way for several days now.


Here’s to a great rest of your week,