Good Afternoon,
No surprises in this forecast, just further confirmation the Mid-C is a lot longer today than it was a few weeks ago:
Monthly Energy
Energy Scorecard
- Oct: Down 200 aMW
- Nov: Up 270 aMW
- Dec: up 340 aMW
- Jan: up 150 aMW
- Feb: up 500 aMW (NOTE: Feb is a partial month which historically builds from front to back, ignore these anomalies until there is a full month of reporting)
Modest changes after the last week; as important as the size of the changes is the consistency to last week’s very large increases lending more credibility to those forecasts. These numbers were posted post-storm and would be based upon realized precipitation. That said, how does the current forecast compare to historicals?
This view compares the current forecast to the same week for the previous four years and is useful for putting the current forecast in a historical perspective. Both Oct and Nov are poised to set four year highs, but given the heavy rains that seems reasonable, though the Nov anomaly seems high. Dec is also at a high but just barely while Jan is well below 2013-4 water.
Looking at the current forecast by day versus the same week’s forecast for the last four years adds insight into the timing of the changes. In this current forecast it remains a four year high until Jan 2. We find it doubtful that a single storm, albeit strong, can have such long-term effects on the energy market without projecting above normal rain for the next couple of months.
Not a lot to say other than that is a wide delta between normal and current, probably too wide.