Thursday Outlook

Good Afternoon,

The northwest braces for flooding, and demand remains largely down year-over-year in California.  Here are a few highlights of what’s going on in the West.


EIM Daily

1Prices are generally lower than yesterday, and considerably so compared to 8:00 AM.  We have yet to see a spike in today’s LMP.

2Yesterday reached a high of 175 at around 7:55 PM before dropping down to the low 30s for the rest of the night (a bit higher than the rest of the day).

Nat Gas Summary

3Small decreases in gas prices across all hubs.  PG&E Citygate showed the largest decrease with a drop of $0.08.


SP15 Loads

4Loads are down slightly week-over-week, and are considerably lower than they were on the same day last year (nearly 9000 MW difference yesterday).

NP Loads

5NP loads are similar to SP though the year-over-year results were less dramatic earlier this week.  Yesterday’s loads were 4,000-5,000 MW less than last year.

Mid-C Loads

6Early morning loads in Mid-C have been consistently higher in 2016 for the past week.


Burbank Temps

7Still projecting a decent sized burst of heat in Burbank next week (12 degrees above normal).  Should have cooler temps until next Monday.

Portland Precipitation

8Though we expected a huge amount of precipitation in the Northwest, the projections keep getting higher.  It will be very wet for the next several days.

Kalispel Precipitation

9The Northwest storms will easily reach into Western Montana bringing nearly 0.5″ into Kalispel.   Based on temperature forecasts, it’s still a little early and the storm a little warm to see snow in the valleys.

NW River Forecast

10All this precipitation talk is being reflected in our Forecast vs STP report.  The difference seen in the graph highlights the increasing intensity of the storm.

Gas Reports


Hub-Level Gas Demand

11Drops in gas demand across all Hubs, including a 150+ MMCF decrease in SP15.


Major Unit Outages

12Quite a few plants across all fuel types returned online today including close to 350 MW of gas in NP15 and 170 MW in wind in SP15.

Nuclear Status

13PV3 remains offline (last at 100% on Oct-03).


Transmission – MC-NP

14TTC and flow remain down following the drop that began on the 10th.

Transmission – MidC to BC

15Flow has moved from BC to MC just twice in the past two days, just a small percentage compared to last week.


Enjoy the rest of your week,