Good Afternoon,
The NWRFC updated its 120 day forecast (STP) at 1:40 PM today – we were too busy updating our Bookmark Product update to notice. This release has some interesting twists and turns, let’s start by looking at the monthly blocks of energy:
All NWRFC streamflow forecasts (cfs) are converted to energy (MWH) and combined into monthly totals. Each week’s forecast is then stacked next to the previous week for an easy view of the relative changes between forecasts.
Energy Scorecard
- BOM – Down 1000 aMW
- WHOA, where did that come from? At least there are only a few days left
- Oct – Up 600 aMW
- Nov – Down 400 aMW
- Dec – Down 450 aMW
- Jan – Down 1000 aMW
Those are some big swings, week on week, considering it is September 26 and we, and everyone else, are clueless about how WY17 is going to playout. The BOM change shouldn’t come as a surprise given the RFC’s 10 day tipped their hand:
The Oct did catch us by surprise, let’s look closer at the daily energy:
Most of this new-found October energy is coming in the first week, just when the MidC can least handle getting any longer given the DC going to zero.
The week on week delta is 1700 aMW from Oct 5-7 though this week’s forecast looks more realistic than last as now the anomaly versus average STP for those days is barely positive while last week it was hugely negative.
Most of the large positive anomalies from Nov 12 to Dec 4 have been scaled way back suggesting last week’s forecast was rogue, an aberrant blunder on the fed’s part.
But it appears a new error has been baked into this week’s forecast … the late Dec and Jan numbers look bizarre:
There can be no explanation, no valid reason, for predicting a 1400 aMW anomaly for January on September 26; no one, not even the River Whipsaw Center, knows a thing about Jan water – to forecast big anomalies is bold and foolish and no one should use those values for hedging/speculating. What makes this forecast even sillier is the state of the MidC reservoirs – they are actually fuller than they’ve been in the last couple of years:
