Mike’s Take – Water Update

Good Morning,

I was surprised to see the NWRFC back off hydro in its 10 day forecast:


Especially next week; this weekend is just the typical shaping adjustments.  Given the substantial precip that is already falling, and what is expected over the next four days, I would have thought the govt would project more flows, not less.  One possible explanation is that the forecasted precip is less than what went into Monday’s STP.  Regardless of the true reason, this is a material change and worthy of watching today’s update to see if it is confirmed; if it is confirmed then we can expect Monday’s STP to be bullish … oh boy.

This theory, the one that expected precip is less than earlier forecasts, is somewhat borne out in today’s weather forecasts:


At least it is in the first few days, though on the 15th and 16th there is substantially more precip/snow than what was in Monday’s forecast.   While on weather, check out NP15’s forecast:


Projected rain is nearly double what it was the day before; perhaps El Nino really is really real?!?  NP is getting setup for some softening with Diablo now back and wind speeds picking up which will drive a rally in their renewables.

I’ll update this post when the new RFC 10 day gets published.

Enjoy your weekend,