Product Update – Daily Control Area Forecasts

Ansergy has added a new report, Daily Control Area Forecasts, that computes the following control area  metrics for daily on peak and off peak:

  1. Load – Ansergy forecasts its hub-level load forecasts at a control area level
  2. Hydro – Hydro is forecast at a Basin level and ownership of each basin is based upon the EIA 860 reports.  Basin level energy is split into control area using the relative ownership levels
  3. Wind – most wind is under contract and only the wind that is reported as owned in the EIA 860, or is publicly controlled under long-term contract, is allocated to the control area.
  4. Net Load = Load – Hydro – Wind
  5. Change in Net Load = Today’s Net Load – DAYn
    1. This report acts as a proxy for a control area’s net exposure to the market.  The basis for this is that if we know their net position today their future net position will be driven by changes in its load, hydro, or wind.  Of course this assumes that the control area did not add new generating capacity and/or new long-term contracts.

The following map summarizes the Ansergy Control Areas and the hubs they belong to:


The following shows Puget’s  change in net  load for the off peak hours:


The utility will find itself getting shorter over the next few months and, as winter wanes, that short position becomes length with the ramping up of the runoff and warming spring weather.  Drill down into the elements (Loads, Hydro, or Wind) of the forecast to understand what is driving this:

000_CApugethydro 000_CApugetload 000_CApugetwind

As you can see the loads account for most of the swing in net position; the utility realizes an 800 MW increase at  winter peak and a 1400 MW drop in the midst of the spring doldrums.  Netting all three together returns Net Load:


The Change in Net Load is computed by taking today’s net load and subtracting that value from each of the forecast days.   If the analysis is missing something today (wind, load, contracts, hydro) that same value is missing from all the future forecast dates and thereby rendering the Net Change in Load a reasonable proxy for how a utlity’s position is changing across time.

If you have any questions feel free to contact me.

Best Regards,