Mike’s Take – Bigger Rain

Good Morning,

The Mid-C 7 day forecast is looking wetter than yesterday’s, which was an already wet outlook:


This is production-weighted precipitation and is still skewed by massive west-side rains:



This kind of event will cause flooding on some (maybe all) of the west-side rivers.  Though the reservoir owners will try to catch as much as possible to mitigate those floods the overall production in these basins will increase.  Furthermore, this storm will jack flows on the east of the Cascade rivers (Methow, Wenatchee, etc) which enter the Columbia essentially unregulated.  This won’t be a big driver but it’s bearish now matter how you look at it.

I’d expect the NWRFC to bump their 10 day today and most definitely we will see Monday’s STP raise the bom and perhaps Dec.