Mike’s Take – Oct 5

Good Morning,

Burbank temperatures rally hard – back to the high 90s:


While the northwest remains pleasantly bearish:


Actual loads have tumbled far and fast in the south and just modestly in the northwest:



Yes, you read the chart right, that is a 8000 MW drop in peak (Saturday to Saturday) in the south and a much more modest 400 MW drop in the north.  Yet all of that will change with more Santa Ana’s roasting the golden state (at least the southern part of the golden state).  The Ansergy load forecast shows SP spiking 3-4000 MW while NP and Mid-C remain relatively unchanged:

001_LoadFC_MC 001_LoadFC_NP 001_LoadFC_SP

But that is not the “big” news in today’s outlook; the big news is the recent changes in flows on the northern intertie :


Clearly we are seeing a new pattern of flows, at least for the last three days.  The days of selling 1000 aMW into the Mid-C appear to be in the past, but suggest we watch this closely.