STP Update – Sep 28

STP Update – Sept 28, 2015


The NWRFC completed its update of the 120 day forecast (STP) just now.  The Ansergy take on this important forecast is summarized best in the following monthly energy chart:002_STPmonthly


Modest changes across the five forecast months (Sep-Jan) with BOM unchanged, Oct off by 200 aMW, Nov-Dec unchanged, and a sizeable (900 aMW) haircut in Jan, though that far distant forecast has as much credibility as a barker at the county fair.

The daily plot also warrants our attention:


Slightly notable are the small hair cuts across October but more profound is the constancy of the forecast week-on-week.  I think they really like these #s and are going to stick with them, until they don’t.