Product Update – WY16 Now Uses El Nino Years


We have made a material changes to the model:

  1. Water Year Ending 2016 is now being computed using only El Nino Years; all other water years (2017) will use all years.  The following table shows the anomalies by Ansergy Hydro Basin:


Once we begin using snowpack anomalies to forecast balance of WY16 the future precip/snow anomalies will use an average of all El Nino years  pre/swe for that basin.  I added this to the model yesterday and current price forecasts now reflect the change.  The following chart  summarizes the price changes:


Most of the price change beyond December is caused by the switch to El Nino years (some may be due to a change in gas price).   We will rerun all of our historical forecasts to reflect this change.