We have made a material changes to the model:
- Water Year Ending 2016 is now being computed using only El Nino Years; all other water years (2017) will use all years. The following table shows the anomalies by Ansergy Hydro Basin:
Once we begin using snowpack anomalies to forecast balance of WY16 the future precip/snow anomalies will use an average of all El Nino years pre/swe for that basin. I added this to the model yesterday and current price forecasts now reflect the change. The following chart summarizes the price changes:
Most of the price change beyond December is caused by the switch to El Nino years (some may be due to a change in gas price). We will rerun all of our historical forecasts to reflect this change.