Mike’s Take – Sep 22

Good Morning,

Nothing much to report on the STP – the price impact on the forecast of yesterday’s minor changes is immaterial – I’ll pass on posting a non-event.  That said there is, however, some interesting things developing down south, way down south in the LA basin – like very hot temperatures.  Burbank may set a six year high on Sep 25, and equally interesting is the change in temperature forecast versus a few days back:


Or at least get close to that high – the following plot was pulled from the Historical Temperature report:


There appears to be a trend in very warm Socal temps of late – the forecast is predicting Burbank and Phoenix to enjoy nearly  equal temperatures – low 100s.  Should this continue, through BOM expiry, the event will bode bullish for the Oct SP-MidC.  The event is mostly limited to SP15 as San Jose temps are forecast in the high 80s, and only for a day:


With the approaching DC derate (to 0) things could get interesting …


And the AC TTC (20 day BPA forecast) is showing some volatility of late:


It appears that the lines capacity has been upgraded by about 1000 aMW for the next few days …. just in time to serve that new SP load.  Clearly its all about SP load for the next few days (weeks).