Mike’s Take – Sep 15

Good Morning,

Mid-C loads continue looking bearish ….to real bearish; add a rain event (almost a 1/2″ at Boise in next few days).  Actual loads reflect a slight drop but what is remarkable about this chart is how little those loads rallied in the heat wave:


By the way, we recently added Puget Area Loads to this report.  The south gets a slight reprieve with Diablo #2 going down for its refuel (10 days prior to Ansergy’s forecasted refuel date).  NOTE: Ansergy will be adding this report to its Fundamental Group this week.


A reprieve that will be sorely needed as loads down yonder have fallen off a veritable cliff:


Yet what goes down “must” go up, at least temperatures will go up in Burbank …. back to the mid-90s and back to putting more pressure on the Oct spread.


Maybe there is a shimmer of bullishness today … maybe BC  will quit dumping its energy into the over-sold Mid-C … there is a hint of this in the latest flows from our neighbors to the north:


Maybe its just another head fake, buying on weakness, or maybe they are finally trying to true up their account?  It couldn’t come at a more opportune time … after the NWRFC exorcised the final bullish demon from BOM yesterday ….